Should I Make a Big Change in My Career or Not? A Guide To Help You Discover Your Future Career Path.

The big career decision is one full of anxiety and stress. It can feel overwhelming, it feels your whole life and future depends on it. The fact we are considering a change in a career means we don’t know what the outcome will be. How do we navigate this stressful time of change. The advice to follow your passions, is hard to follow. Here i use the Cynefin Framework, as a tool to help you unlock your thinking and find a career path that is most likely to match your needs.

Key Takeaways:

• Big career decisions create anxiety due to uncertainty.
• NHS staff face major career challenges and opportunities amid ongoing reforms.
• The Cynefin Framework helps you think through big career choices.
• Clear changes are stable but may leave you stuck.
• Expert changes require big investment in time and effort, but offer clear steady progression.
• Complex changes bring flexibility and high rewards, but significant risks and uncertainty.
• Chaotic changes demand rapid, decisive action and quick reassessment.
• Viewing uncertainty as opportunity is the key to making better decisions.
• Overcoming our natural fear is vital to unlocking career potential and growth.

Why People in the NHS Need to Consider Their Careers Now?

There is a cold wind of change blowing across the NHS as there are attempts to make over £6 billion of financial cuts, including the abolishing of NHS England, 50% cuts to the ICBS whilst NHS providers have told the BBC they are considering making ‘unthinkable cuts’. It’s a terrible time for so many staff who have dedicated their careers to helping the NHS. Even for those staying, there are many big decisions about their careers, especially with the upcoming reforms. 

NHS Reforms Are An Opportunity.

That’s not to say it will all be doom and gloom; there are likely to be significant opportunities created in the reforms, including the move to digital first, a focus on prevention, and the establishment of the Neighbourhood Health Service. There may be many opportunities head but knowing what is the right thing for you is a big challenge.

Most Existing Career Guidance is Not Helpful.

Whilst there is plenty of career advice out there, I’ve found the quality of most career advice is pretty poor. It often boils down to various circular definitions of “Do what you want to do”, “Find your purpose” etc without giving the tools to consider and navigate your options. Evidence backs this up: Duckworth et al. (2018) and O’Keefe et al. (2018) found that passion is often developed over time through exposure, exploration, and skill-building, rather than discovered fully formed. But where do you start with that?

Why I Can Help?

Having spent many years in both the public and private sector as well as working as a consultant and being something of a career chameleon, I’ve a broad range of lived experience and practical advice to help you find your path. But I’ve also spent much of my life understanding how and why people change. Building a library of tools and techniques that can help you find your way. So I thought the least i could do is share some tools and insightful ways to use them, to help get you unstuck in your career decision making.

Start With The Biggest Decision First.

The best starting point I can give people is in helping to make the big decision, from which all other decisions flow. This is the thing that is most likely to keep you awake at night with worry: Should I stay, should I go, how big a step change should I make? Should I change careers? Should I change industry? Should I start my own business? Should I join a new organisation or stay with an old one?

These are the big, important decisions that can leave us uncomfortable and full of anxiety, and stress. How can you make the big decision? There are a number of ways, but I think Dave Snowden’s Cynefin Framework offers an excellent tool as a first step to help us get started with navigating the options and determining your approach.

The Cynefin Framework: An Introduction

The Cynefin Framework is a decision-making tool that categorises problems into five domains:

1. Disorder Aporetic/confused: Unclear which domain applies; confusion until categorised.
2. Clear (or Simple): Problems with clear cause-effect relationships; best practice applies.
3. Complicated (The Domain of Experts): Problems have known unknowns; analysis and expert advice help; good practice applies.
4. Complex: Relationships are unclear; probe, sense, respond; emergent practice.
5. Chaotic: No clear relationships; rapid action needed; act, sense, respond.

It helps us identify how to approach different types of problems effectively. Here I will apply it to help you navigate those big career decisions. It is useful because it matches what you need to do with the environment you are in.

The Cynefin Framework and Career Decisions

Let’s apply the Cynefin Framework to the level of change we may consider in our careers.

1. Clear Career Changes: 

Pro’s of Clear Career Changes

This would be minimising change and staying in the same role or making only simple changes, taking a pay cut, moving to part-time time or moving to a different but similar role in the same organisation. 

This is the choice that most people instinctively try to make. Not only are the outcomes predictable, the energy cost of change is low as is the learning curve. Furthermore, there is little fear in taking this option. 

If you need career safety and have dependent children or a large mortgage, this will probably be the best option to give you the security you need.

Con’s of Clear Career Changes

This is the most common option for everyone else too. Meaning that in times of change, there will be large number of people attempting to do the same thing. You are also putting your career heavily in the hands of others. You most likely have little agency or choice but to fit in. There is also the option where there is the least learning and development. This may result in career lock-in, where you have few career choices in the future. 

Risks of Clear Career Changes Flipping to Chaos

One of the characteristics of the Cynefin Framework is that when clear breaks down it can often descend into chaos. The big risk here is that you are dependent on your organisation. Big restructures mean that not only will roles disappear, but whole organisations might disappear or radically change in function. (As we have already seen from ICBs) Meaning that your clear and simple choice no longer exists. 

We should also be mindful that technological change will mean that it is quite likely that many jobs could change very drastically in the not to distant future, demanding new skills and impacting and altering career paths in unpredictable ways. Whist of course this is true for everything, if you have a narrow range of experience, this could result in chaos as what was once a stable and predictable career path, such as in financet, may have old certainties swept away.

Deciding Whether Clear Career Changes Are Right for You.

To decide whether these clearer changes are the best path for you should consider both the stability you require in your career as well as the stability of the organisation and the role. These need to match. So if you require stability and the organsiation is unstable, aim to move to do the same role in an organisation that is more stable. If the organsiation is stable, but your role isn’t you probably need to consider moving to a different role in the same organisation.

Actions for Simple Changes

Sense: Look for opportunities to make change.

Categorise: Determine the type of change best meets your needs

Respond: Work out how you can best match your skills to the type of change you want.

2. Complicated (The Domain of Experts):

Unsurprisingly, this is the domain of professional expertise. Such as taking the steps you need to get further qualifications, or a choice to specialise your career in a particular role. This is another ordered approach to career change. This will take an existing skill or knowledge that you have and choose to get formal advancement through knowledge. So for example, a manager choosing to get a qualification in contracts law, or public health management.

Pro’s of Expert Career Changes

The advantage of going down the route of either getting further qualifications and or specilaising your career is the clarity of what you do and how you fit into the system. Specialist experts are often in demand have clear career development paths, and can often move from one organisation to another and find themselves in a similar role. Their expertise is often formally recognised and sought after in organisations. Expert careers can be particularly satisfying, as judgment is required for many decisions. For that reason, they can come with significant status.

The Cons of Expert Career Changes

A significant investment in time, resources, and effort is required. Often initial jobs in a new area of expertise are treated as ‘dogs bodies’ and have relatively low pay to more advanced experts and will have to progress over a period of years. Experts are often expected to fit into the system and have limited agency in their careers, especially those who are newer practitioners. The career of experts may be long, but advancement is also often slow.

Risks of Expert Career Changes

 You need to have sufficient ability in the area you decide to study. Qualification and career progression is not guaranteed. AI and technological change in some areas may lower the value of expertise as many more people will have access to high quality information tailored to their needs at a low cost. You may also find yourself pigeon holed by your choice of expertise, which could limit future choices. For that reason, i suggest you choose an area of passion rather than purely chasing financial reward, as at least you will be unlikely to regret your studies and you will have a shared passion with others who are experts in the subject.

Deciding Whether Complicated/Expert Career Changes Are Right for You.

If you want longer term stability and progress and are willing to trade that in for short term disruption, then the expert career path is probably a good choice. The more closely it aligns with your current career development path, the easier the choice will be. In order to counter the early instability of this path, you may choose a safer short term option, such as a stable role as a stepping stone to get you working in an area of your expertise or provide financial balance as you move forward.

Actions for Complicated/Expert Career Changes

Sense: Look for available courses and career prospects in a particular discipline.

Analysis: Work out the qualifications you need, the carrer prospects, and how you are going to gain those skills.

Respond: Dedicate yourself to fulfilling the criteria for entry and supporting your professional studies.

3. Complex And Big Career Switches

Complex changes would be a complete change in career, whether that is starting your own business moving sectors of work (Eg. leaving the NHS to work for a private company) dramatic changes in career e.g. deciding to become a teacher, or setting up your own business or consultancy.

The reason these changes are complex is there are a high number of variables for you, many of which are unknown. Big career switch introduces a lot of unknowns in terms of social change, even if the job is simple, you don’t know what normal is. Making these drastic career changes may have a high risk, but potentially high reward.

Pro’s of Complex And Big Career Changes

Complex career changes give you a lot of freedom and flexibility. You shape the career you want. In doing so, we have the chance to shape a more rewarding career that feels like a better fit for our interests and needs. Alongside this is a sense of achievement and pride.

Con’s of Complex And Big Career Changes

The drastic changes come alongside risks. You are disconnecting from your support network, the paths you know. You are putting at risk and potentially breaking the social networks that support you. You may be able to rebuild these. But with considerable time and energy. Complex career changes like starting a business often take far more time and energy, and money than we ever envisage at the start (the planning fallacy). Fully committing to these changes significantly, especially early on increases the size of the risk.

Risk of Complex And Big Career Changes

The risk of complex career changes is directly related to the speed and scale of risk you are taking. These are essentially bets on the future. Cynefin recommends because of their complexity, you should run multiple small-scale experiments to test the waters before committing. Taking a free course online, or create a low cost demo product for your business. The risk of complex career changes is also unpredictable. An initial successful switch may not be sustainable. There are many variables at play in a complex change, and many will be unknown and unknowable.

Working in Complexity Requires Adaptation

A complex shift requires constantly learning and adaption to maximise the chance of success. Managing risk and making lots of small tests are strongly advised. But also, the best advice possible is to build up your network. Get to know people who work in the target industry. Ask them about their problems, challenges and experiences. Look for partnerships and collaboration. Look for people who complement and synergise with your work or desired role. This can help mitigate and make sense of many of the challenges of a complex career change.

Deciding Whether Complex Big Career Changes Are Right for You.

To make the big career change requires dedication, a passion for learning. But you are also likely to need good social skills as you will need to build trust with people and build new networks of friends and relationships. We rarely think about this when making big career changes, but often it is the whether we are happy in the new environment that determines whether you thrive. So it makes sense if you are unhappy in your current environment and more sense if you feel you don’t fit. But if you feel you have a calling an unfulfilled passion, do consider it, as you only have one life. Make the most of it.

Actions for Complex And Big Career Changes

Probe: Test and experiment with changes at a small scale (e.g. at weekends, meetings and events).

Sense: Use the feedback from your tests and experiments to determine the best path. 

Respond: Amplify and increase what works, do less of what doesn’t. Continued adaption.

4. Chaotic Career Changes.

No one wants a chaotic career change. This can happen when a business fails, an organisation reorganisations. But also when a job role disappears or fundamentally changes due to technology.

Another source of chaos can be dramatic changes in life, such as illness, the passing of a loved one, divorce or even marriage and a new baby. These changes can turn our lives upside down. Often unexpectedly. Changing our wants, needs and desires from a career. 

When Chaotic changes happen, it is important to act fast and decisively. Work out what actions you can take to stabilise the situation and try and calm things down. But after acting, we then have to observe and learn, before acting again. Too much constant action can feed the chaos. So in career terms, this might be taking a temporary contract, but also taking a week or two off just to calm things down and reorient yourself.

Actions for Chaotic Career Changes

Act: If things are going wrong, don’t wait, act fast.

Sense: What was the consequence of your actions? Did you make progress?

Respond: If you made progress, continue to act again. If no,t determine a new course of action.

5. Disorder: Confused About Your Career?

When you are confused, you are in part of the ‘Disordered’ space. It is where most of us start. It is split into two sections, confused – you don’t know what situation you are in e..g, carrying on as you are, but not knowing if or when you might need to make a career choice. At this time, you often don’t even know if you are confused, let alone what to do. 

Or ‘Aporetic’ where we become aware we don’t know, e.g, whilst waiting for changes to be announced, not knowing if you can keep your job, change it, or leave, but you do know that you are actively going to have to respond. Just becoming aware that you don’t know opens up possibilities.

Minimising Uncertainty is Often a Trap.

The instinct in this space of uncertainty is to crave certainty and run towards it. Such as applying for a transfer within an organisation. But that will often be a mistake. It may make you feel better at the time, but it will often leave us in situations we regret later, often without any sense of control. 

The Lure of Certainty.

Many people spend their careers staying as close to certainty as they possibly can. Staying in a job they hate or moving careers just to fit in. This is often a root to unhappiness. Sometimes we have no choice. But more often than not we rush the decision.

Uncertainty is a Place of Opportunity.

 Feeling uncertain is an uncomfortable space. But to successfully manage change and get the best career you can, you need to welcome and recognise it and use it as an opportunity to understand and orient yourself. In that uncertain space, you have options and opportunities. Stopping to understand yourself, the changing situation, and make well considered changes is the best path to success. (This is what the OODA loop is all about),

The Cyenfin Framework is Orientating Tool

The power of the Cynefin Framework is that is helps you make sense of the situation you are in. What may be a simple change now may be a more complicated change for you later. Similarly simple change for you may be a complex change for someone else. Whilst the framework can’t predict the future, you can use it to evaluate the potential consequences of your actions, in a step by step fashion on where you want to go. You may make a few clear and simple steps to make a complex change over time. (e.g. starting a business with existing clients)

Cynefin Works For The Smaller Career Stuff Too.

Whilst I’ve used Cynefin here for the big decisions. You can actually use it for every aspect of your career skills. If you are want a job, but need to make changes to your skills to get it you can decide where that skill fits in the framework and use that to inform your decision making. This is true for each part that constitutes your job. So you can get down into the detail and ask what specific skills do i need for my future role, and how difficult is that to change.

Change is not Easy.

I don’t want to trivialise change in your career; it can be a highly stressful time, especially in times of uncertainty such as now. It is all too easy to get caught in analysis paralysis when a lot of change happens in a short time. This is especially true when it is threatening. When our emotions are high, it can be difficult if not impossible, to change. That is when we need to reach out to others.

Fear is the Career Killer.

When we have been comfortable in our niche for a while. Any decision to change is naturally filled with fear. This is not you, it is instinctive, it is a natural survival instinct to keep us safely in an environment we can naturally control. In a world that does not change, this is fine. But in our modern fast-changing world, not changing is a form of death. It can leave us stuck, unhappy, and miserable in our careers, it stops us from learning, adapting, and growing.

The Edge of Possible.

Overcoming this fear and expanding what is possible for us, is really core to what the Edge of Possible is about. (Read more here) It is only by recognising and overcoming are fears we can start to explore what is really possible for us. It is only going beyond what we currently know that we can make new things possible, whether that’s gaining new skills, making new discoveries about yourself, or discovering hidden passions. If you want guidance and support, I’ve got tools and techniques that can help (Cynefin is one of many I use). I hope this perspective on using the Cynefin Framework is helpful to you. I’d love to hear your feedback.

Conclusion

Navigating significant career decisions is challenging, particularly amidst uncertainty and organisational upheaval. By using frameworks such as Cynefin, individuals can better categorise their decisions, clarify their situations, and adopt tailored strategies. The key is orientate yourself to the world you are in. Recognising fear and uncertainty as opportunities rather than threats is key to embracing change and achieving meaningful career growth. Ultimately, thoughtful exploration, small scale experimentation, and continuous adaptation are fundamental to successfully managing career transitions.