As a new financial year looms, it is a common time for leaders start renewing their plans to make a bigger impact, with the resources we have. Yet, history shows us that the future seldom unfolds as anticipated. Last year’s defining moments were likely those unexpected twists we didn’t see coming.
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The Science of Why Leadership Plans Fail
While we may plan for the upcoming year, believing that our lessons learned will pave a smoother path, it’s important to understand why the future can still surprise us. It’s not bad planning, nor bad leadership (per se) it’s rooted in the science of reality and how we perceive the world around us. Here are 12 important scientific reasons leadership plans fail:
1. Optimism bias We naturally believe that we and our organisations are less likely to experience or be affected by negative events in the future. Research indicated being optimistic in our thinking helps us with motivation. (If not our judgement)
2. Planning Fallacy: Leadership Plans fail because we often underestimate the time and complexity of tasks. This isn’t just optimism; it’s a product of how our brain processes information, chunking it and simplifying the complexity. We are all almost ‘hardwired’ neurologically to make this mistake. Unless it’s a task we have already done many times before.
3. Heisenberg’s Uncertainty Principle: In physics, measuring one property of an object accurately makes it harder to measure another with the same precision. This principle introduces a natural uncertainty in our measurements.
4. Gödel’s Incompleteness Theorem: This mathematical principle suggests that in any system, there are truths that can’t be proven. We can never fully know or prove everything. There may be things that are real that we simply cannot prove or know how they got there.
5. Turing’s Undecidable Problem: There are problems where no algorithm can ever be created that will solve the problem. E.g. An AI will never be able to fully predict what an AI will do. (Think about that one because that has a huge impact on the future of AI. (E.g. if you had an AI buyer and AI seller, the maths says one will always be able to ‘surprise’ the other!)
6. The observer effect: A system cannot accurately measure itself. A system measuring itself will change the nature of the system making your measurement inaccurate. This important principle means that we are always somewhat blind to our own reality. Leadership plans fail because leaders in observing what’s happening change what’s happening.
7. Exponential Change: Rapid changes, like technological advancements or viral outbreaks, seem to come from nowhere and bring sudden unexpected change to our world.
8. Irrational Numbers: Real world data rarely occurs in the nice whole numbers, that we see in our spreadsheets. Creating small but significant variations in data that can add up to huge numbers across populations or systems. (like the values less than 1 penny in interest being worth millions to banks)
9. Fractals: These infinite, repeating patterns are mathematically efficient in distributing energy, information, and materials so are very common in the natural world. For example, the UK’s coastline, measured in ever smaller units of measure, approaches infinity. (and will take ever-increasing amounts of time to measure!)
10. Extreme Sensitivity to Initial Conditions: Small changes can have significant impacts, akin to the butterfly effect. A minor event can cascade into a major outcome, altering plans unexpectedly. You need just 3 things changing in relation to one another to create this effect. (The three body problem – which gave Sir Isaac Newton many sleepless nights!)
11. Power Law Distributions: Commonly described as the ‘Pareto principle’ (or 80/20 rule) is a very common distribution relating to people’s behaviour. (although they are often mistaken for normal distributions as they are harder to detect.) In a power law distribution a small number of individual cases can have a massive impact. Predicting these rare and powerful cases is challenging. (and using averages in power law distributions is often hopelessly misleading). If you were drawing a football team out of people randomly of a population and happened to pick a very rare but very real Lionel Messi. It would seriously messi up your team matching and make your averages meaningless.
12. Entropy: Entropy is often the most powerful of all these factors. In scientific terms, systems naturally move from order to disorder. Energy and information spread over time. Entropy can not be measured directly. This means we can only estimate probabilities, not certainties. For instance, while we know a car will eventually break down, predicting the exact moment or cause is uncertain.
Leadership Plans Fail As the World Is Unpredictable
These scientific concepts have profound implications for the practices of leadership and management. Leadership plans fail as the world is fundamentally unpredictable and incomprehensible in its entirety. The idea of having the right information to make the right decisions for the future is undone. The perfect plan of today, will not fit an imperfect ever changing world of tomorrow.
Leadership Plans Fail Because Every Situation is Unique
Whilst business schools preach replication of case studies and evidence based planning. The science world suggests what is also required is a replication (or at least an understanding) of the environment those case studies and evidence were created in. No matter how many Ted Talks use Elon Musk, Bill Gates and Steve Jobs as examples noone has replicated their success. (Not even Simon Sinek!)
Leadership Plans Fail in a Sea Of Uncertainty
So, how can leaders plan in such an unpredictable world? Planning is crucial but should be approached as navigating a sea of uncertainty. While calm waters might occasionally rock the boat, unseen currents and storms of change can drastically alter your course.
Mike Tyson’s famous quote, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face,” resonates here. Leadership plans may fail, so constant vigilance and adaptability are key. Leading towards impact is not just having a plan it’s also having an awareness of the sea of change and a hand near the tiller.
Navigating the Sea of Uncertainty.
There a couple of useful leadership decision making tools that we can use to navigate this sea of uncertainty. Indeed they were devised just for this task. The Cynefin Framework helps us recognise and respond to the seas we are navigating. Whilst the OODA loop helps us orientate and respond to an ever changing world.
Planning gives us direction and purpose and equips us for our future. Leadership plans fail, but success will only be reached if we can use the decision making tools to recognise the changes in the environment that surrounds us and responds to both the threats and the opportunities to guide us on a path to success.
Conclusion
The real world is often rocked by novelty and unpredictability meaning that leadership plans fail. Despite our best efforts data and best laid plans, surprises are inevitable. Understanding the intrinsic unpredictability of our world is crucial for planning and impactful leadership. At Leading to Impact, we aim to equip you with the knowledge and tools to navigate this ever-changing landscape, helping you be the difference that makes a difference.
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